The Biobased and Renewable Products Advocacy Group (BRAG) helps members develop and bring to market their innovative biobased and renewable chemical products through insightful policy and regulatory advocacy. BRAG is managed by B&C® Consortia Management, L.L.C., an affiliate of Bergeson & Campbell, P.C.

By Lauren M. Graham, Ph.D.

On July 11, 2017, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).  EIA considered EPA’s recent rulemakings on the 2017 RFS volume requirements and proposed 2018 RFS volume requirements when developing its STEO for 2017 and 2018
 
Biodiesel production averaged 101,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, and, according to EIA, is expected to increase to an average of 105,000 b/d in 2017 and to 109,000 b/d in 2018.  Biomass-based diesel imports are expected to fall from 54,000 b/d in 2016 to 53,000 b/d in 2017 but rise to 59,000 b/d in 2018.
 
Ethanol production averaged 1.0 million b/d in 2016 and is expected to average slightly above 1.0 million b/d in 2017, which would be a record, but will likely decline slightly in 2018.  Ethanol consumption averaged about 940,000 b/d in 2016 and is forecast to increase slightly in 2017 and 2018.  As a result, the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool will increase to nearly 10.1% in both 2017 and 2018.  Only marginal increases in higher-level ethanol blends are assumed to occur during the STEO forecast period.


 

On January 10, 2017, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, which includes forecasts for 2018.  The report outlines expectations for regular gasoline to average a retail price of $2.38 for 2017, with prices for the first quarter of 2017 to average $2.31.  The finalized RFS volumes that were announced on November 23, 2016, resulted in EIA forecasting that ethanol consumption will average about 940,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2017 and 950,000 b/d in 2018.  Based on this level of consumption, the ethanol share of total gasoline is expected to average about ten percent in 2017 and 2018.  Ethanol production is forecast to average about 1.0 million b/d in 2017 and 2018.